ONLINE FIRST: Hazardous weather outlook

The following is the hazardous weather outlook according to the National Weather Service in Springfield, Mo. -- last updated at 2:33 p.m.

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme Southeast Kansas, including the following counties: Bourbon, Crawford, Cherokee, Benton, Morgan, Miller, Maries, Vernon, St. Clair, Hickory, Camden, Pulaski, Phelps, Barton, Cedar, Polk, Dallas, Laclede, Texas, Dent, Jasper, Dade, Greene, Webster, Wright, Newton, Lawrence, Christian, Douglas, Howell, Shannon, McDonald, Barry, Stone, Taney, Ozark, and Oregon.

Monday afternoon and evening:

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks this afternoon ... otherwise generally quiet weather conditions are expected this afternoon. It is emphasized ... though ... that this lull in thunderstorm activity will only be temporary.

Weather hazards expected include tornadoes with the potential of long track strong tornadoes, large hail with golf ball size hail likely and baseball size hail possible in stronger storms, damaging winds near 70 m.p.h., and heavy rain and localized flash flooding.

Supercell thunderstorms will continue to rapidly develop ahead of an eastward advancing dry line in the plains. After 7 p.m., these storms will approach areas along and west of the U.S. Highway 71 corridor. Thunderstorm movement across the plains into Southeast Kansas and far west Missouri will predominately be to the Northeast. However, wind profiles support the potential of right-turning supercells, which could result in a sudden shift in movement to west-to-east. The greatest risk for long track tornadoes will be in areas along and west of the U.S. Hwy. 71 corridor.

After 9 p.m., Thunderstorms are anticipated to transition into a squall line and track east across the rest of Southwest Missouri. The predominate severe weather risks will transition to damaging winds up to 70 m.p.h. and quarter to golf ball size hail along with localized flash flooding. The arimass in areas east of the Highway 65 corridor will be more stable as this line of storm moves to the east, which will decrease the risk for tornadoes.

As for the rest of the week, isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday near a warm front across southern Missouri. A limited risk for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with a potential of large hail and damaging winds will be possible later Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning as this warm front lifts north into the Central Ozarks. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night into Thursday with a cold front moving through the Ozarks. The last round of thunderstorms are expected Friday.

Flash flooding early this week will be localized near thunderstorms with stronger updrafts and where thunderstorms track over the same areas. With multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected during the week and rainfall becoming more widespread through the week, the flash flooding and flooding potential will increase as the ground becomes saturated.

For more information and graphics, visit www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf