Studies show area growth headed into downward trend

A resilient and positive attitude surrounded the dreary reports regarding population growth in Bourbon and Vernon Counties Friday afternoon.

According to studies conducted by the Center for Economic Development and Business Research, W. Barton School of Business at Wichita State University (Kan.) and Missouri Economic Research and Information Center, both counties are looking at a population decline over the next 22 years.

The studies -- utilizing formulas from census information retrieved between 2000 and 2004 -- project an estimated population change for every county within the two states.

Vernon is one of 39 Missouri counties to be projected at a decrease, while Bourbon is one of 74 Kansas counties to be projected at a loss.

Bourbon County is looking at the larger of the two descents with a projected 12 percent, nearly 2,000 person, decrease in population between 2000 and 2030.

Familiar with the WSU study, Fort Scott Area Chamber of Commerce President Vicki Pritchett's response was straight to the point and without hesitation. "It's not good," she said.

However, Pritchett remains optimistic, saying there are contributing facts in these studies which cannot be accounted for.

"I feel there are a lot of important factors already being addressed here," said Pritchett. "I see those numbers certainly changing in the future."

Over the past several months Fort Scott and Bourbon County residents have been seeing some of the issues being addressed throughout the area. Possibly the hardest of these projects to miss is the Fort Scott City StreetScape Project.

Since mid-June, downtown Fort Scott has been filled with work crews attempting to update, repair and improve features of the historic district.

These improvements include approximately $2 million in federal grant funds to update waterlines, roads and sidewalks. The project will also involve a number of updates to public amenities including 1920s-style lighting, appealing landscaping, hanging flower baskets and banner displays.

Across the Kansas, Missouri state border, Nevada/Bourbon County Chamber of Commerce Board President Jeremy Fast said he is also predicting an end result that differs from the projected 4 percent, 989 person decrease in residents of Vernon County.

"As chamber of commerce we have to hope our community is going to grow," said Fast. "If things happen the way we want them to, I only see our county growing."

And, topping the list of things the chamber wants to see happen is company enticement.

"Our goal is to bring in new business," said Fast. "If so, numbers go up."

A shining example of Vernon County's business lure presented itself early in 2007, when the Prairie Pride Biodeisel plant moved into Deerfield, Mo. This new business proved favorable to both Bourbon and Vernon Counties in December when Prairie Pride announced its plans to purchase $50,000 to $75,000 in waste water from Fort Scott.

"I see businesses moving in, creating jobs," said Fast. "If anything we have to be growing."

It is no secret that having employers and businesses is an important part of continuing a successful society. So, how do the two counties go about bringing companies in to the area?

Pritchett and Fast agreed, both saying "business incentives."

Incentives can include tax breaks to larger companies as well as utility breaks or any other means of making the area more desirable to outside companies.

In addition to moving new businesses into the area, Pritchett said she hopes to see Bourbon County address some other issues.

"I think we need to take a hard look at our incentives for businesses," she said. "But we also need to look at what we offer families coming to the area, and dealing with our housing shortage."

While Bourbon and Vernon are not the only counties throughout Kansas and Missouri projected to decline in population over the next 20 years, they are contrasting to neighboring counties.

In Kansas, Crawford County just south of Bourbon is looking at a nearly 30 increase in population going from 38,898 in 2005 to 45,991 in 2030.

In Missouri, Barton County just south of Vernon, is looking at a 6 percent increase moving from 12,940 to 13,730 in the same 25 year span.

Fast and Pritchett believe that cooperation between counties seeing growth and those declining is key.

"You have to go to city meetings," said Fast. "You have to see what they're doing that we're not. Obviously they are doing something we aren't."

"Cooperation around the region is very important," said Pritchett. "We are not just Bourbon County, we are Southeast Kansas."

Several cooperative acts are already underway on both sides of the state line.

There is currently an organization in Kansas attempting to better highway travel by expanding U.S. Highway 69, a highway which runs directly through Fort Scott.

A similar group in Missouri is attempting to complete an equivalent project with U.S. Highway 71, which runs through portions of Nevada.

"There are a lot of cooperative efforts already in place," said Pritchett.

While most Midwest states see their largest population changes through migration (the number of people coming into the state from outside areas), including Kansas, Missouri's increases are mostly from natural changes. Natural changes are measured with a simple formula -- births minus deaths.

"In-migration is much more challenging and volatile than the birth and death rate," said Wichita State University Center for Economic Development and Business Research Senior Research Associate Anne Gallagher. "There can be huge changes decade by decade."

Gallagher also explained the reasoning for using only information from the most recent census report. She said, information obtained prior to these reports reflect several differences, the biggest being -- people living longer lives.

"You don't want to go back too far," said Gallagher. "There are many changes every decade. For example, life expectancy has increased, which lowers the death rate, issuing an increase in elderly."

Gallagher reinstated that improving growth to an area requires the consideration of several factors.

"There's no 'one thing.'" she said. "You have to have jobs, employment. You have to have reasonable housing ... You have to look at what's in place to attract young people to not only come to, but to stay in, the community.

As far as solving the declining population problems, Gallagher suggested a quick reaction is important.

"The earlier you make the effort," she said, "the better off you will be in 20 years."

Pritchett said she believes both communities are ready to make that effort.

"I think we can beat those numbers," said Pritchett. "I think it's time to beat them."